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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward pattern. It commonly functions as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a direct line: the coach who orchestrated the biggest turnaround receives the prize. In practice, it fuels an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or just the most shocking upset.

Yet the latest field is distinctly unique. The list of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division champions fading and longtime strugglers rising in unison. During an typical year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this turbulent and thrilling year, he's up against several other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical vote ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent performance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to conjure big plays out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the immense expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But this isn't a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for sustained success. But he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the leadership aspects, which was not a given following his early public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. But he has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

After an early hot start, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A midseason setback caused the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year argument has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still